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It’s Friday!
Hello, Curse and Coffee friends,
Today, we look at how one jobs report is crashing the markets.
Hit reply and let us know what you think (we read all of your kind words).
Coffee at the ready…
The Big Sip
The take: One jobs report turned gold's $5,000 floor into a trapdoor. The algos did the kicking.
What happened: US employers added 130,000 jobs in January, nearly tripling the Dow Jones consensus of 55,000. Unemployment dipped to 4.3%.
Why it matters: Gold dropped 3% toward $4,900 after stop-losses below $5,000 set off a machine-led cascade. Now 94% of the market expects the Fed to hold at 3.50–3.75%.
What to watch: January CPI lands this morning at 8:30 am ET. FactSet's median call is 2.4% YoY. A soft print is the only thing that restarts the rate-cut conversation.
Gold clawed back above $5,000 earlier this week. Then a round number met a stop-loss, and both lost.
[Analysis] Analyst Receipt
Source: Fawad Razaqzada, City Index / FOREX.com, via CNBC, 12 Feb 2026.
Background: Gold sat above $5,000 for days. Geopolitical risk said hold. Rate expectations said sell. Traders split the difference and parked their stops just below the round number.
Quote: "Those stops have been triggered below the $5,000 level, and that caused a cascading-like effect, causing prices to slump in a short period of time."
Timing: CPI lands in hours. A soft print could turn Thursday's stop-loss sellers into Friday's bargain hunters. A hot print extends the bleed toward $4,900, where gold bottomed yesterday.
Sponsor Break
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