130,000 jobs killed the rate-cut trade. Gold found out first.

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Today, we look at how one jobs report is crashing the markets.

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The take: One jobs report turned gold's $5,000 floor into a trapdoor. The algos did the kicking.

What happened: US employers added 130,000 jobs in January, nearly tripling the Dow Jones consensus of 55,000. Unemployment dipped to 4.3%.

Why it matters: Gold dropped 3% toward $4,900 after stop-losses below $5,000 set off a machine-led cascade. Now 94% of the market expects the Fed to hold at 3.50–3.75%.

What to watch: January CPI lands this morning at 8:30 am ET. FactSet's median call is 2.4% YoY. A soft print is the only thing that restarts the rate-cut conversation.

Gold clawed back above $5,000 earlier this week. Then a round number met a stop-loss, and both lost.

[Analysis] Analyst Receipt

Source: Fawad Razaqzada, City Index / FOREX.com, via CNBC, 12 Feb 2026.

Background: Gold sat above $5,000 for days. Geopolitical risk said hold. Rate expectations said sell. Traders split the difference and parked their stops just below the round number.

Quote: "Those stops have been triggered below the $5,000 level, and that caused a cascading-like effect, causing prices to slump in a short period of time."

Timing: CPI lands in hours. A soft print could turn Thursday's stop-loss sellers into Friday's bargain hunters. A hot print extends the bleed toward $4,900, where gold bottomed yesterday.

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Gold didn't fall because 130,000 jobs are a blockbuster. It fell because 130,000 jobs landed in a market that had priced in weakness.

Traders spent January watching 2025's job gains get revised from 584,000 down to 181,000.

That revision painted a labour market barely breathing — 15,000 jobs a month. So desks are positioned for rate cuts.

Gold climbed. Stops got tight.

Then January's number came in nearly nine times the revised monthly average. The dollar firmed. Rate-cut bets collapsed.

And every automated stop below $5,000 fired at once.

The jobs number was strong, but 82,000 of those 130,000 came from healthcare alone. Strip that out, and the broad economy added 48,000 jobs.

That's not a boom. That's one sector doing all the heavy lifting while the rest of the market pretends the headline is the whole story.

This wasn't a gold crash. It was a positioning flush.

The metal didn't change.

The bet did.

Bull: Central banks bought 863 tonnes last year. JPMorgan projects $6,300/oz by year-end. One job’s print doesn't break that bid.

Bear: The labour market isn't cracking, the Fed has no reason to cut, and every algo in the building just proved how fragile leveraged gold longs are when a round number breaks.

Our read: The 12-month thesis is intact — the overnight trade just shifted from "when do they cut?" to "what does CPI say at 8:30?"

BLS — January 2026 Employment Situation Summary — The primary source everyone's citing, but few actually read. The buried detail: 2025 total job gains were revised from 584,000 down to 181,000. That means the entire previous year averaged just 15,000 jobs a month. January's 130,000 nearly matched all of 2025 by itself.

2025 averaged 15,000 jobs a month. January added 130,000. BLS

Morningstar — Delayed CPI report to show persistent inflation — Best primer on today's number. Shelter costs and core services are what to watch.

CNBC — Silver plunges 30% in worst day since 1980 — Context for anyone wondering why precious metals feel fragile. The leverage built up in this rally is still unwinding.

Fox Business — January 2026 jobs report breakdown — Healthcare alone added 82,000 jobs. That's nearly the entire beat in one sector.

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