The Big Sip
Musk’s insane $1T carrot trades voting power for a bet on robots, not cars.
What happened: Tesla has proposed up to $1T in performance stock across 12 milestones. Unlocks start at a sustained $2T market cap, plus targets: 20M vehicles, 1M robotaxis, 1M robots, and 10M full Self-Driving subscriptions.
Why it matters: Hit all 12 and Musk’s ownership rises from ~13% toward ~25%. Awards vest over 7.5 to 10 years. He must stay in an approved Tesla role, and later payout tiers require a board-approved CEO succession plan.
What to watch: Shareholder vote on 6 Nov 2025 (per SEC 8-K). Expect follow-on litigation after Delaware’s Chancery Court voided Musk’s 2018 pay on 30 Jan 2024 and reaffirmed it on 2 Dec 2024. An appeal is pending at the Delaware Supreme Court.
Reciepts
• [Report] Reuters, 5 Sep 2025: 423.7m performance shares in 12 tranches, starting at $2T market cap; operational goals include 20m vehicles, 1m robotaxis, 1m robots. Reuters
• [Report] Bloomberg interview, 12 Sep 2025: Chair Robyn Denholm calls Musk a “generational leader” and defends the $1T plan. Bloomberg+1
• [Analysis] Reuters, 9 Sep 2025: How Tesla imagines $8.5T—robotaxi network and Optimus margins, not just EVs. Reuters
• [Counter / Opinion] Sen. Bernie Sanders on X, 8 Sep 2025: calls the plan “grossly immoral.” X (formerly Twitter)
If this plays out, your Uber driver will be a robot that gives you a one-star review for “human interference.”
Here’s The Brew
This isn’t about pay, it’s about power.
Tesla wants to buy Elon time to flip from cars to code: robotaxis, Optimus, the whole sci-fi lunchbox.
Bulls say trade governance for growth: give him more votes, get the robots. Bears say blank cheque and point to Delaware sharpening its knives.
Either way, Tesla climbs out of the car lot and into the lab.
You’re choosing: execution premium or governance discount.
If it lands, your commute is a nap, and the night shift is all metal.
Two Sides, One Mug
• Pro: Tie pay to wild targets and you channel Musk’s obsession into shareholder returns instead of side quests.
• Con: You’re hard-coding one man’s dominance and calling it “alignment,” which is great until the bets miss.
• Our read: Incentives beat vibes. Just admit you’re buying execution and swallowing governance risk for a decade.
Receipt of the Day
[Report] Tesla Form 8-K (9 Jul 2025) setting 6 Nov 2025 for the annual meeting—where this gets decided. It anchors the calendar and the risk window. Tesla Investor Relations
Spit Take
20 million cars = Toyota + VW’s 2024 output combined. — Reuters
Coffee Break Links ×3
• [Report] Reuters cheat-sheet to the $1T plan’s math and milestones. If you skim one explainer, make it this. Reuters
• [Analysis] MarketWatch on the $400B EBITDA gate and why robots, not sedans, carry the valuation story. MarketWatch
• [Report] Bloomberg video: Denholm says it’s about voting influence, not dollars; hear it from the chair. Bloomberg
Join your team of caffeinated skeptics.
One take, one counter, one receipt.
Six minutes.
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