Monday, 4 May 2026.
Buffett's heir just showed his hand.
Most of Wall Street is pretending it doesn't matter.
It does.
The Big Sip
Berkshire's record cash pile is the sanest position in finance.
The conglomerate reported $397.4 billion in cash on Saturday, its highest ever, in Greg Abel's first quarter as CEO. Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks for 14 quarters running, the longest such streak in the company's history. Abel just inherited the largest corporate cash pile on the planet, larger than Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon combined.
Watch when he finally moves…
Somebody else's bad day will pay for Berkshire's next decade.
Everyone calls this patience. Patience is a feeling. $397 billion is a coiled spring.
Here’s Your Brew
The numbers are the receipt.
Cash rose from $373 billion at year-end to $397.4 billion in three months. Berkshire sold $24.1 billion in equities and bought $16 billion, resulting in net sales of $8.1 billion. Operating earnings climbed nearly 18% to $11.35 billion, with insurance underwriting up roughly 27%.
The business hums. The capital allocator just won't allocate.
Abel said the right things in Omaha.
He won't deploy capital "just because we have it." Buffett, now chairman, told CNBC the environment isn't ideal for deploying cash. The polite version is: prices are silly. The Buffett Indicator (total US market cap divided by GDP) sat at 228% on 30 April.
It's the highest reading on record, well above the 2000 dot-com peak.
Look at the playbooks.
Apple just authorised a $100 billion buyback while spending around $13 billion on capex this year. That's the move of a company out of growth ideas. Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta will spend close to $700 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026.
They are betting roughly 100% of their operating cash flow on returns arriving before the bond market does.
Berkshire is doing neither. It's parking the money in T-bills at 3.7% and waiting for the music to stop.
The market is punishing him for it. Berkshire shares are down about 6% year-to-date while the S&P 500 is up 5.6%. Since Buffett signalled his exit last May, Berkshire has trailed the index by more than 30 points. Most readers will treat it as evidence that Abel is wrong.
Every retail investor buying the Big Tech dip right now is making the same bet.
Abel has been at this for 25 years.
You haven't.
Two Sides, One Mug
Pro: Record cash paired with record valuations is the textbook setup for patient capital. Abel is doing his job.
Con: Holding $397 billion in T-bills means betting against the index, and Berkshire has been losing that bet for 16 months running.
Our read: The underperformance is the price of admission to the next crash. Abel will look like a genius, eventually. The question is whether you can wait.
Receipt of the Day
[Report] Berkshire Hathaway, "First Quarter 2026 Earnings Release"
Cash and Treasury bills: $397.4 billion at 31 March. An all-time record.
Why it matters: The largest corporate cash pile in the world just refused to buy. When the buyer with the most data and the longest memory steps back, it's a data point.
Spit Take
The Buffett Indicator hit 228% on 30 April, an all-time record.
Extra Curricular Coffee Break Links
Gotrade — "Apple's $100B Buyback". Apple chose shareholders. Berkshire chose the bench. Same market, opposite reads.
CNBC — "Tech AI spending approaches $700 billion in 2026". Big Tech is spending 100% of its cash flow on a bet. You're buying the dip on that bet.
Fortune — "Berkshire's annual meeting attendance falls sharply". The arena was half full. The cash pile was full. Capital follows confidence.
Mugshot 📊
Be honest. Right now you are…
Holding cash with Abel.
Buying the dip on Big Tech.
Refusing to look at your portfolio until Friday.
Already in shorts and praying.
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For the love of coffee, see you tomorrow!
Enjoy your Monday, keep it caffeinated.
That's Monday.
If your portfolio doesn't have any cash in it…
This is your reminder.
Read Friday’s newsletter about Anne Hathaway burying print media here.
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