Europe calls it blackmail. America calls it a deal.

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Curse and Coffee friends,

Today, we explore how Europe is being blackmailed by the US.

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Coffee at the ready…

The take: The US is using steel tariffs to stop Europe from regulating Google. That's not a metaphor. It really happened.

What happened: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick walked into a room of EU trade ministers and made an offer. We’ll drop the 50% steel tariff if Brussels backs off on Big Tech. Nice digital regulations you've got there. Shame if something happened to your car industry.

Why it matters: Europe fined Apple, Meta, and Google €3.65 billion this year. Washington wants it to stop. German factories are the hostages.

What to watch: Whether Brussels fires back with its "anti-coercion instrument"—a trade weapon built for precisely this kind of shakedown.

Steel mills defending ad algorithms. Welcome to trade policy in 2025.

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The architecture:

July's trade deal set 15% tariffs on most EU goods. Steel and aluminum stayed at 50%.

A loaded gun was left on the table. And Lutnick came to Brussels to pick it up.

He told reporters that relaxing EU tech rules "could unlock hundreds of billions or even a trillion dollars in potential investment."

The math is simple: stop fining our companies, or we will crush your exports.

Germany's Economy Minister Katherina Reiche stood next to Lutnick and called for fewer digital rules herself. She cited the DMA and DSA by name.

The EU isn't unified. Some members want tariff relief more than principles.

The EU built these laws to stop platforms from crushing competitors and mining user data without consent.

Apple paid €500 million in April. Meta paid €200 million. Google was hit with a €2.95 billion fine in September.

Brussels has teeth.

The question now: does it have a spine?

Pro: Tariffs and regulations are both leverage. Swapping one for the other is negotiation. Europe wants market access. America wants its giants untouched. Make the trade.

Con: Ribera says digital rules "are a matter of sovereignty and should not be included in trade negotiations." Cave once, and every trading partner with muscle will try the same move.

Our read: The EU wrote rules to protect 450 million people from platform abuse. The US is betting that autoworkers in Stuttgart matter more than principles in Brussels.

Someone's bluff will get called this year.

White House Fact Sheet: US-EU Trade Deal — July 2025

"Sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminium, and copper will remain unchanged—the EU will continue to pay 50%."

Why it matters: They left steel out of the deal on purpose. The leverage was always the point.

€4.15 billion — What EU regulators fined Apple, Meta, and Google this year. Washington wants a refund.

☕ CNBC: Google hit with €2.95B fine — The fine reportedly got delayed as regulators waited for the US to cut tariffs on European cars. Brussels did it anyway.

☕ Tech Policy Press: EU officials warn of fallout — Ribera in August: Europe must "avoid the temptation of being subordinated."

☕ European Parliament: Tariff impact study — The 50% steel tariff could shave 0.8% off eurozone GDP. That's the pressure.

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For the love of coffee, see you on Monday!

Enjoy your weekend, keep it caffeinated.

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