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It’s Thursday!
Hello, Curse and Coffee friends,
Today, we explore Copper’s explosive future.
Hit reply and let us know what you think (we read all of your kind words).
Coffee at the ready…
The Big Sip
The take: The US sits on 48 million tons of copper reserves and takes 29 years to permit a single mine. It’s not a supply problem but a policy choice.
What happened: S&P Global warned Thursday that AI and defence spending will push global copper demand up 50% by 2040, with 10 million tons of annual demand going unmet.
Why it matters: A single hyperscale AI data centre uses more copper than a town of 10,000 homes. The Pentagon is ramping artillery shell production 13-fold. Both need the same metal. Yesterday.
What to watch: Whether copper makes the US critical minerals list in 2025. If it does, permitting could finally accelerate. If not, the 29-year timeline holds.
Dan Yergin's been calling copper "the metal of electrification" for three years. The permits haven't moved.
Sponsor Break
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Here’s Your Brew
Demand is spiking now. Supply takes decades. That's the nooks and crannies.
A hyperscale AI facility can use 50,000 tons of copper — for the building alone, before you count the substations and grid upgrades feeding it.
Microsoft alone is building a dozen.
So is everyone else.
The Pentagon is scaling 155mm shell production from 93,000 to 1.2 million per year — each shell needs copper — and global defence spending jumped $270 billion in 2024 alone.
AI companies don't care what copper costs. Defence ministries don't either.
It's less than half a percent of a data centre's budget. National security isn't price-sensitive.
The market can't fix what the red tape broke.
The US has the copper.
It just won't let anyone dig it up.
Two Sides, One Mug
Pro (miners): Give us the permits. We'll figure out the rest. The copper's there (48 million tons of it). The problem is paperwork.
Con (manufacturers): By the time new mines come online, the supply chain will have moved. China controls 40% of global refining.
Our read: The market will sort it out. Unless you needed that data centre by 2027.
Receipt of the Day
The industry's own numbers. 48 million tons of US reserves. 29 years to permit.
Spit Take
1 data centre = 10,000 homes. That's the copper maths.
Your Coffee Break Links (and water cooler chatter)
Coffee Break Links
BHP — Why AI and data centres are driving copper demand — Data centre copper use will grow six-fold by 2050. BHP isn't complaining.
Modern War Institute — As America rearms, it needs minerals — Military copper demand growing 14% annually. Nobody talks about it. Defence procurement stays classified.
Goldman Sachs — Copper price forecast — Short-term surplus, long-term squeeze. Goldman sees $15,000/ton by 2035.
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Who gets the copper?
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