Flying blind becomes Fed policy

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Curse and Coffee friends,

Today, we dive into the Fed data blackout.

Hit reply and let us know what you think (we read all of your kind words).

Coffee at the ready…

The take: Missing October economic data creates bigger problems than the shutdown that caused it.

What happened: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated on November 12 that the October inflation and jobs reports would "likely never" be released.

Why it matters: Fed rate decisions rely on economic data. Without October numbers, they're making trillion-dollar calls with incomplete information. Markets now price December cuts below 50% for the first time since September.

What to watch: The Fed meeting on 9-10 December, with the policy debate split between cutting rates without full data versus holding steady.

"Driving in the fog," Fed Chair Powell called it.

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Central banking without data means the Fed is essentially making guesses. And they're guessing with trillions of dollars.

Within hours of the 12 November announcement, the odds of a December rate cut collapsed from 63% to 47%.

Markets don't like uncertainty. And neither do central bankers.

The Current Population Survey polls approximately 60,000 households each month. October's survey closed during the shutdown.

You can't retroactively ask people in November what they were doing in October.

The data is just gone.

Now, the Fed gets to make policy decisions with a massive blind spot right in the middle of its economic dashboard.

Boston Fed's Susan Collins put it plainly: without labor market proof, she's "hesitant to ease policy further."

Translation: "I don't know what's happening, so I'm not touching anything."

The Fed now faces a delightful choice: cut rates while inflation might be accelerating, or hold rates while unemployment might be spiking.

Pick your disaster.

Either error costs ordinary savers more than any missed government paycheck during the shutdown.

Markets are volatile. That's annoying.

But the real problem is bigger: monetary policy depends on data infrastructure that just faceplanted for an entire month.

The Fed is making decisions worth trillions in December based on incomplete information and intuition.

Good luck, everyone.

Pro: Missing data protects Fed independence. Better to wait for actual numbers than cave to political pressure for rate cuts that might reignite inflation.

Con: The Fed has private-sector data showing labor market weakness. Holding rates during a potential downturn because you're missing one government report is bureaucratic cowardice dressed up as caution.

Our read: The Fed gets to pick between two terrible options. Cut rates blind and risk goosing inflation right when you thought you had it beaten. Or hold rates and watch unemployment spike while you wait for data that's never coming.

Either way, someone's getting screwed. The Fed has to decide who.

Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics—2025 Government Shutdown FAQs

The first detailed breakdown, showing October 2025, creates a permanent blind spot in America's official economic record. It notes that previous shutdowns delayed but never cancelled monthly labour data.

"First missed monthly jobs data in over 900 months" — Fortune

CNBC: White House October Data Release — Why: Shows how economists expected delays, not cancellations; includes details on which agencies affected beyond BLS.

MSNBC: White House Data Announcement — Why: Only administration in history to scrap monthly jobs report after shutdown; explores political motivations.

Fortune: December Fed Rate Cut Expectations — Why: Tracks how rate-cut odds fell from 92% to 63% in one month as Fed officials strike cautious tone.

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For the love of coffee, see you tomorrow!

Enjoy your Thursday, keep it caffeinated.

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