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Curse and Coffee friends,
Today, we explore how junk-food giants copy Big Tobacco’s playbook.
Hit reply and let us know what you think (we read all of your kind words).
Coffee at the ready…
The Big Sip
The take: Ultra-processed food makers copied Big Tobacco's homework. Lobbying, lawsuits, and bought research. Regulators are falling for it again.
What happened: A Lancet series backed by UNICEF and WHO, published on 19 November, documented how food companies deploy the same delay tactics cigarette makers perfected in the 90s.
Why it matters: These companies don't just sell Doritos. They fund politicians, ghost-write nutrition guidelines, and shape public health policy to protect their margins. When researchers say "ultra-processed food causes harm," industry lawyers show up with briefcases full of doubt and studies funded by the people selling the stuff.
What to watch: Whether governments force front-of-package labels that go beyond "high in sugar" warnings. We're talking labels that call out artificial colors, sweeteners, and processing markers that make food shelf-stable for the apocalypse but terrible for your gut.
The tobacco playbook worked for decades. Food companies are betting it'll work again. So far, they're winning.
The industry spent more on advertising in 2024 than the WHO's entire annual budget. Cigarettes at least come with pictures of black lungs and sick people.
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Here’s Your Brew
The playbook is photocopied.
Days after the 19 November Lancet series landed, the International Food & Beverage Alliance tried to throw out the entire NOVA framework, calling the evidence "inconclusive."
Classic tobacco-era move.
When the findings threaten profit, attack the measurement system itself.
NOVA matters because it's the food industry's X-ray. A global classification showing exactly how far your dinner traveled from actual kitchens to industrial factories.
Food giants hate it because it's legible. You can't spin "ultra-processed" into wellness marketing.
So they're funding "multi-stakeholder initiatives" that sound collaborative but are designed to water down regulations before they're finalized.
The shennanigans haven’t changed in 40 years: create doubt, demand more research, slow regulators, protect margins.
It works because governments get cautious.
Industry yells "not enough evidence," and policy grinds to a halt.
Meanwhile, 92 of 104 long-term studies link heavy UPF intake to chronic disease. Companies respond by swapping one artificial color for another and calling it progress.
Engineered foods hit shelves fast. Regulation crawls.
The "consumer choice" defense?
It falls apart when products are engineered for overconsumption and marketed to kids who can't consent.
Brazil will cap UPFs at 10% of school meals starting January. The US is still debating portion-size labels on the back of Doritos bags.
The suits behind the snacks don't care about your health. They care that you keep buying. Chronic disease is a profitable externality that they don't have to pay for.
The tobacco playbook worked for decades because regulators moved more slowly than lobbyists. Food companies are running the same script.
And it's working again.
Two Sides, One Mug
Image: Wikipedia
Pro: Strict UPF regulation risks limiting affordable, shelf-stable foods that help prevent hunger among low-income households who lack access to fresh ingredients.
Con: When 92 studies link these products to obesity, diabetes, and premature death, corporate profits shouldn't override coordinated public health response.
Our read: Brazil feeds 40 million schoolchildren fresh meals daily for less than Nestlé spends on legal teams fighting nutrition labels.
Money isn't the problem. Priorities are.
Receipt of the Day
JAMA Oncology, 13 Nov 2025
A 24-year study tracked the eating habits of 30,000 women.
The results: Women who ate the most ultra-processed food (about 10 servings daily) had a 45% higher risk of colon polyps that can turn into cancer.
The comparison group ate just 3 servings of ultra-processed food daily. Their cancer risk was significantly lower.
The link is direct: more ultra-processed food means higher colon cancer risk, especially in younger people.
Spit Take
“92 of 104 long-term studies link UPFs to chronic illness.” — Inserm / The Lancet
Your Coffee Break Links (and water cooler chatter)
Brazil School Programme, Feb 2025 — Why: National policy feeds 40 million students 50 million meals daily, drops UPF limit to 10% by January 2026. Meanwhile, US school lunch includes pizza as a vegetable.
Harvard Gazette, 13 Nov 2025 — Why: Lead researcher explains linear risk increase—more UPFs consumed, higher polyp probability—challenging "moderation" messaging.
Food Navigator Analysis, 19 Nov 2025 — Why: Industry publication admits reformulation targeting fat/salt/sugar missed the point entirely; processing itself drives harm.
Join your team of caffeinated skeptics. ☕
Opinionated world news that respects your time.
One bold take, the best counter, and the receipt(s) that prove it (all in sixish minutes).
Mugshot Poll 📊
Which tactic matters most when curbing UPFs?
You can read yesterday’s newsletter on AI beauty tech here.
For the love of coffee, see you tomorrow!
Enjoy your Thursday, keep it caffeinated.
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