Iraq's Light Switch in Tehran

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Today, we look at darkness (in Iraq).

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Coffee at the ready…

The take: Iraq didn't lose power because of a bomb. It lost power because Iran stopped sending gas.

What happened: On Wednesday, Iraq's entire national electricity grid collapsed across all 18 provinces. A sudden drop in Iranian gas supplies to the Rumaila power plant in Basra wiped thousands of megawatts off the system in minutes.

Why it matters: Iraq imports roughly 40% of its power-generation fuel from the country currently being bombed by the United States and Israel. That dependency just turned a war next door into a lights-out crisis for 45 million people.

What to watch: Whether Iranian gas flows resume at pre-war levels. Before the conflict, Iraq was receiving around 55 million cubic metres of gas per day from Iran. That figure has crashed below 10 million. The ministry says restoration is underway, but the pipeline runs through a war zone.

The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad issued an urgent departure notice to American citizens the same night the lights went out.

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Iraq burns Iranian gas to make electricity.

When the gas stops, the megawatts vanish. The Rumaila plant lost supply and shed thousands.

The grid buckled — the blackout spread across every province like a fuse burning out.

Iraq is one of the world's largest oil producers. The country has 145 billion barrels of proven reserves and flares enough gas each year to power several mid-sized countries.

But it still can't keep its lights on without a pipeline from Tehran.

It's an infrastructure issue. War isn’t helping.

Iraq has had two decades to build gas capture and fix a grid that runs at a fraction of demand.

Same blackouts each summer, same supply cuts when temperatures swing.

The war just sped up the calendar.

The case for patience: Iraq has begun shifting. BP's $25 billion Kirkuk gas capture project and TotalEnergies' southern gas programme are designed to replace Iranian supply within three to five years. The transition was always going to take time.

The case for alarm: Three to five years assumes peace, stable sanctions, and a cooperative Tehran. Iraq's grid just proved it can't survive a single supply disruption. The runway is gone.

Our read: You can't build energy independence on a timeline that assumes your supplier won't also become a battlefield.

[Report] Xinhua, 5 March 2026

"A sudden drop in gas supplies at a major power plant in southern Iraq triggered a total collapse of the national electricity grid across the country."

The ministry confirmed the Rumaila plant lost fuel and shed thousands of megawatts, dragging every province offline. The cause wasn't a cyberattack or a missile strike. It was a gas bill.

(Xinhua)

Why it matters: This is the Iraqi government's own admission that the grid collapsed because of a dependency — one pipeline from one country and eighteen provinces went dark.

Iraqi gas imports: 55m m³/day → under 10m. Same grid. (Roic News)

The cloud is also in the war zone — Three AWS data centres in the Gulf got hit by Iranian drones. Your banking app in Dubai ran on one of them.

Hormuz is closed until further notice — tanker transits have dropped from 24 per day to 4. Wood Mackenzie says $150 oil is on the table if the Strait stays shut.

Iraq was already trying to break up with Iran — The Washington Institute argued in January that Iraq was closer than ever to energy independence. Wednesday night begged to differ.

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