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Curse and Coffee friends,
Today, we explore how Jakarta surpasses Tokyo as the world’s most populous city.
Hit reply and let us know what you think (we read all of your kind words).
Coffee at the ready…
The Big Sip
The take: Jakarta became the world's largest city because statisticians finally counted who was already there.
What happened: The UN's World Urbanization Prospects 2025 report, released November 18, ranked Jakarta first with 42 million residents—up from 33rd place and 11 million in 2018.
Why it matters: The 31-million-person jump came from a methodology change that now counts informal settlements called kampungs, where millions live without clean water, power, or official recognition.
What to watch: Whether other megacities see similar jumps as the UN applies its new grid-based method globally, and whether governments use the data to serve these communities or keep ignoring them.
The UN changed a formula and found 31 million people. Those people had been there the whole time.
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Here’s Your Brew
This is about what we choose to measure.
For decades, Indonesia's official statistics excluded kampungs—informal settlements where a quarter of Jakarta's population lives in self-built housing without permits or services.
The UN's old method relied on national data, which used wildly different definitions.
The new approach uses a consistent grid: any square kilometer with 1,500+ people is considered urban.
Suddenly, millions of invisible residents appeared on the map.
This data could unlock infrastructure funding, or confirm what residents already knew, while nothing changes.
We finally admitted that 31 million people existed.
The spreadsheet caught up to reality. Whether policy follows is a different question.
Two Sides, One Mug
Pro: Consistent methodology exposes service gaps and forces governments to plan for populations they've long ignored.
Con: Relabelling doesn't build sewers, and inflated rankings could let officials claim "progress" without investing a rupiah.
Our read: Data that doesn't lead to pipes, roads, and clinics is just a more accurate way of ignoring people.
Receipt of the Day
UN World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results
The primary source shows the shift in methodology. The new "Degree of Urbanization" approach uses 1km² grid cells with density thresholds, replacing inconsistent national definitions. This single change moved Jakarta from 33rd to 1st.
Spit Take
“42 million people now call Jakarta home” — UN report 2025
Your Coffee Break Links (and water cooler chatter)
☕ Al Jazeera: Indonesia's Jakarta now the world's largest city — Why: Covers Dhaka's climate migration and Jakarta's sinking crisis in one read.
☕ Axios: This megacity has overtaken Tokyo — Why: Clean explainer on the megacity boom. Eight in 1975. Thirty-three now. Thirty-seven by 2050.
☕ PBS: Why Indonesia is moving its capital to Borneo — Why: The $35 billion Nusantara project. A third of Jakarta could be underwater by 2050. The government's solution: leave.
Join your team of caffeinated skeptics. ☕
Opinionated world news that respects your time.
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Mugshot Poll 📊
When governments don't count people, it's usually because:
You can read yesterday’s newsletter on a Fed rate cut in December here.
For the love of coffee, see you tomorrow!
Enjoy your Thursday, keep it caffeinated.
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