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Shigeko Kagawa, Japan's oldest person at 114, in Yamatokoriyama, Nara Prefecture, on July 30 | THE YAMATOKORIYAMA MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT / VIA JIJI

The take: Japan’s longevity is a win, but it strains budgets until incentives change.

What happened: On September 12, 2025, Japan’s health ministry reported 99,763 people aged 100 and above, 88% of whom are women. The figures were released just before Respect for the Aged Day, which falls on 15 September, Japan’s national holiday to honour seniors.

Why it matters: With fewer workers supporting more retirees, Japan is on track to reach approximately 79 seniors per 100 workers by 2050.

What to watch: The draft 2026 budget in December and upcoming OECD labour updates will show moves on childcare, skilled migration, and later retirement.

Reciepts

• [Report] The Japan Times on the new high, gender split, and prefecture rates (12 Sep 2025). The Japan Times
• [Report] MHLW Abridged Life Tables 2024 — life expectancy 87.13 women, 81.09 men. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare
• [Report] Jiji/Nippon: 36.19 million aged 65+, a record 29.4% share (14 Sep 2025). Nippon
• [Analysis] OECD: population down 45% by 2100 on current path; employment −52%. OECD
• [Counter] WEF “longevity economy” take — ageing as growth opportunity. World Economic Forum

Japan’s silver cup for new 100-year-olds is now silver-plated. At 100, you’ve earned the right to complain.

Here’s The Brew

Japan’s centenarian pageantry hides a workforce crunch.

On 12 Sep 2025, the government announced 99,763 people aged 100 or more.
Ceremonies followed on 15 Sep for Respect for the Aged Day.

The gifts and headlines grabbed attention.
But the real story is the retiree-to-worker ratio tightening every year.

Ceremonies are the photo. Budgets are the load-bearing wall.

Toast the 100 club as the workforce struggles to fund the system.

Cities bask in longevity PR, as care homes struggle to hire and families struggle to find affordable childcare.

The viral picture is not the cup. It is the shrinking bench of working-age people behind it.

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Two Sides, One Mug

• Pro: Longer lives are a civilisational win. Older workers and robots can extend productive years.

• Con: Fewer workers per retiree means higher taxes, strained pensions, and small-firm bankruptcies.

• Our read: Celebrate longevity and fix incentives — childcare at scale, targeted migration, and later-life work beats pretending cups pay bills.

Receipt of the Day

[PDF] OECD — “Addressing demographic headwinds in Japan” (2024): On today’s policy settings, the population is projected to decline by 45% by 2100 and employment by 52%; it quantifies the “do nothing” path. OECD

Spit Take

Japan’s 65+ share hit 29.4% of the population.

• [Report] Asahi AJW: Prefecture leaderboard — Shimane 168.69 per 100,000; Saitama last. Good map for context. 朝日新聞
• [Report] MHLW Life Tables 2024: the hard numbers behind “world-leading longevity.” Bookmark it. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare
• [Analysis] Reuters: firms flag labour shortages; bankruptcies trending toward decade highs. The business end of ageing. Reuters

Join your team of caffeinated skeptics.
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