Oscars announce 201 contenders. Critics already picked the winner.

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Today, we explore the Oscars.

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Coffee at the ready…

The take: The Academy named 201 Best Picture contenders, and Warner Bros. will likely spend $25 million campaigning for a film critics already crowned.

What happened: The Academy announced Tuesday that 317 films qualify for the 98th Oscars, with 201 meeting Best Picture's stricter requirements.

Why it matters: ‘One Battle After Another’ swept every major critics' group before nominations voting opened, turning a two-month campaign into a coronation.

What to watch: Nominations voting runs January 12–16; the March 15 ceremony is ten weeks of catered dinners away.

One Battle After Another cost $140 million to make. The campaign will cost millions more (the price of confirming what 500 critics decided over brunch).

Before we slurp into today’s brew…

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The Oscars are predictable. That's worse than rigged.

Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another won Best Picture at Critics Choice on January 4, then took the National Society of Film Critics, then completed the full Big Four sweep.

Only three films have done that before: Schindler's List, L.A. Confidential, The Social Network.

Rotten Tomatoes published predictions two days later calling the race "not particularly close."

Nominations voting opens Monday. Most Academy members haven't touched a ballot.

Warner Bros. will still fly DiCaprio to voter Q&As in Pasadena. They'll spend $20–30 million doing it — same as every other studio with a serious contender, fighting for nine leftover slots nobody remembers by April.

The diversity rules everyone worried about?

Major studios pass them easily.

Oppenheimer qualified with an all-white cast because it had an Asian executive producer and female department heads.

The gatekeeping is the cheque book.

Pro: Precursors surface consensus. Voters focus on craft, not noise.

Con: A $500 million campaign season for a predetermined result isn't competition. It's a coronation with catering.

Our read: The system rewards peaking early and spending big. Indie films don't survive to March..

📄 Academy Representation and Inclusion Standards — RAISE requires two of four inclusion benchmarks. Studios clear them through creative leadership and marketing hires, not casting. The criteria haven't changed since critics called them "check-the-box" in 2024.

$12,500: Minimum cost to upload one film to the Academy Screening Room. Before a single voter clicks play.

🔗 NPR — Netflix spent more marketing Roma than making it. The playbook, explained.

🔗 Hollywood Reporter — The RAISE questions producers hate. "How are we going to know who's gay when it's illegal to ask?"

🔗 Stephen Follows — Oscar campaign costs, by line item. Grooming alone runs $3,500 per night.

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