The Big Sip
Image: Wikipedia
The take: Prediction markets are becoming news sources. Editors follow the odds because readers already do.
What happened: Platforms like Polymarket that let users bet on future events now handle billions in trading volume. They attract journalists, researchers, and news consumers who want probabilistic forecasts.
Why it matters: When wrong answers cost money, accuracy matters. This addresses a fundamental problem in journalism: being wrong has no penalty, while being loud often pays better than being right.
What to watch: Will regulators treat prediction markets as unlicensed gambling or recognize them as legitimate information platforms? Will traditional media continue prioritizing opinion or shift toward probability-based forecasting?
Reciepts
• [Report] Polymarket trading volume data — Platform processed over $2 billion in bets on 2024 US election outcomes alone
• [Analysis] Academic research on prediction market accuracy — Markets consistently outperform expert forecasters and polls in political predictions
• [Report] Reuters citing Polymarket odds — Major newsrooms now reference prediction market data as credible probability signals
Traditional media built a business on being first. Prediction markets are built on being right. Turns out the second one scales better.