Ahoy Friday!
Hello, Curse and Coffee friends,
Today, we explore Thailand’s election economy problem.
Hit reply and let us know what you think (we read all of your kind words).
Coffee at the ready…
The Big Sip
The take: Thailand votes Sunday in an election that proves winning and governing are different sports.
What happened: The People's Party leads every major poll at 30–35% ahead of the 8 February election — just as its predecessor did in 2023, before courts dissolved it and blocked it from power.
Why it matters: Two decades of political instability sank Thailand from aspiring Asian tiger to regional laggard. GDP growth is projected at 1.5%, household debt sits at 87% of GDP, and this is the weakest the economy has looked in 30 years outside crisis periods.
What to watch: Fifteen People's Party members face ethics investigations that could trigger political bans. Two of them are PM candidates. The probe stems from their predecessor party's campaign to reform the lèse-majesté law, which criminalises criticism of the monarchy.
The election lands during a border conflict with Cambodia that has killed over 100 people and displaced half a million. Caretaker PM Anutin is banking on the nationalist mood to close the polling gap. Whether that's enough to offset the People's Party's structural lead is hard to call..
Thailand has had 13 successful coups since 1932. And at least nine more attempts. This election might not need one. The courts have been doing the job just fine.