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Happy Tuesday!
Hello, Curse and Coffee friends,
Today, we explore losing weight with pills.
Hit reply and let us know what you think (we read all of your kind words).
Coffee at the ready…
The Big Sip
The take: Novo Nordisk just won FDA approval for the first oral weight-loss drug. A survival play.
What happened: The FDA on Monday approved Wegovy in pill form, making it the first oral GLP-1 drug cleared for obesity treatment in the United States. Novo will launch in early January at $149 per month for the starting dose.
Why it matters: A year ago, Novo Nordisk was Europe's most valuable company. Since then, its stock has cratered over 50%, it's cut 9,000 jobs, replaced its CEO, and watched Eli Lilly eat its market share. The pill is a defense.
What to watch: Eli Lilly's oral obesity drug, orforglipron, has a priority review voucher and could be approved within months. Novo's pill must be taken on an empty stomach with no food for 30 minutes. Lilly's can be taken any time, with breakfast. Convenience may matter more than first-mover advantage.
Novo invented this market. Lilly took it. Now Novo's betting a pill can win it back. The first-mover advantage has a six-month shelf life.
Sponsor Break
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Here’s Your Brew
The numbers tell the story.
In Q3 2025, Eli Lilly's Zepbound and Mounjaro generated combined sales exceeding $10 billion.
Lilly now holds 58% of the GLP-1 market. Novo's Wegovy and Ozempic — the drugs that created this category — are playing catch-up.
The injectable market isn't the problem.
Zepbound simply works better: 22.5% average weight loss versus Wegovy's 15%. But pills change the equation.
Novo's oral version delivers comparable results to its injection (16.6% versus Lilly's 12.4% for orforglipron).
On efficacy, Novo wins.
The catch: Novo's pill must be taken first thing in the morning, on an empty stomach, with no more than 4 ounces of water, and nothing else for 30 minutes.
Lilly's upcoming pill?
Any time, any meal.
For a drug people take daily for years, that's the whole game.
Two Sides, One Mug
→ Pro-Novo: First to market with a more effective pill. Established brand. Same proven ingredient as injectable Wegovy.
→ Pro-Lilly: More convenient dosing, stronger injectable portfolio, deeper pockets, and a priority review voucher that could mean approval within weeks.
→ Our read: Novo needed this win to stop the bleeding. Whether it's enough to reverse the tide depends on what happens when patients have to choose between better results and easier routines.
Receipt of the Day
Source: GlobalData market forecast, December 2025
GlobalData is a leading pharma market intelligence firm tracking the obesity drug pipeline.
"Orforglipron will claim status as a mega-blockbuster seller in 2031, bringing in sales of $13 billion. Meanwhile, oral Wegovy is projected to reach $4.4 billion."
Why it matters: Wall Street is already betting Lilly wins the pill war by nearly 3 to 1. Novo's head start may not survive the convenience gap.
Spit Take
"Skip the needle. But not breakfast. That's the deal."
(CNN)
Your Coffee Break Links (and water cooler chatter)
📎 The full breakdown on what oral Wegovy means: CNN explains how the pill works, what the restrictions are, and why Lilly's version might still win. Good primer for anyone asking "which one should I take?" (CNN)
📎 Novo's brutal 2025, explained: Bloomberg charts how the company went from Europe's most valuable to its worst-performing pharma stock. Spoiler: it's not just Lilly. (Bloomberg)
📎 Why Lilly's pill might win anyway: Fierce Pharma breaks down the convenience factor and why analysts think orforglipron could outsell oral Wegovy 3-to-1 by 2031. (Fierce Pharma)
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