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Hello, Curse and Coffee friends,
Today, we explore living on the moon. Hit reply and let us know what you think (we read all of your kind words).
Coffee at the ready…
The Big Sip
The take: Musk's lunar pivot isn't about exploration (it's about IPO maths and a launch window that fits the earnings cycle).
What happened: Musk announced Sunday that SpaceX will build a "self-growing city" on the Moon, shelving his 2026 Mars target for a lunar landing by March 2027.
Why it matters: SpaceX just merged with xAI at a $1.25 trillion valuation. It's eyeing an IPO that could raise $50 billion. Investors want milestones they can photograph, not a six-month trip every 26 months.
What to watch: That March 2027 uncrewed lunar landing — SpaceX's first concrete deliverable for new shareholders.
He spent 20 years saying Mars. The IPO filing said Moon.
Sponsor Break
Before we slurp into today’s brew…
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Here’s Your Brew
Mars missions fly every 26 months with a six-month transit.
Lunar launches go every 10 days, with a 2-day trip. That gives SpaceX 13 times as many shots to prove Starship works (and 13 times as much footage for the IPO roadshow).
SpaceX holds a $2.89 billion NASA contract to build the Artemis III lunar lander.
Musk is now building his own city on the same rock, on a competing timeline, while NASA can't fuel its SLS without hydrogen leaking through the same seals that failed in 2022.
Artemis II — a simple flyby, no landing — just slipped to March.
Nobody at SpaceX has defined "self-growing city." NASA hasn't explained how one of its largest contractors is also its loudest competitor.
And no Starship has ever attempted a lunar landing.
Two Sides, One Mug
Pro: The Moon is objectively faster to reach, cheaper to iterate on, and aligns with billions in existing NASA contracts (pragmatism isn't betrayal).
Con: "Self-growing city" has no engineering definition, announced days before an IPO roadshow, by a man who promised Mars by 2018, 2022, and 2026 — and missed every window.
Our read: The commercial logic is sound, the engineering receipts don't exist yet.
Receipt of the Day
NASA — Artemis II Wet Dress Rehearsal summary, 3 Feb 2026 — NASA's own post confirms a hydrogen leak halted the countdown at T-minus 5 minutes 15 seconds. Same leak type as Artemis I in 2022. Three years of fixes. The smallest molecule is still winning.
Spit Take
Moon: every 10 days. Mars: every 26 months.
(Musk on X, 8 Feb 2026)
Your Coffee Break Links (and water cooler chatter)
CNBC — The "Muskonomy" reshuffles a $1.25 trillion empire: Tesla put $2 billion into xAI, which is now a SpaceX subsidiary. The money is doing laps.
RAND — China's 2030 Moon landing: what's known: Beijing's crewed lunar programme is on track, and it's the reason Washington stopped treating the Moon as nostalgia.
Space.com — Why NASA's hydrogen leaks keep coming back: The world's most powerful rocket versus the universe's smallest molecule. Good technical explainer.
Mugshot Poll 📊
Musk says Moon city in under 10 years. You say:
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