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Hoping y’all had a great Christmas with your nearest and dearest.
It’s Monday, Curse and Coffee friends,
Today, we explore China’s border robots.
Hit reply and let us know what you think (we read all of your kind words).
Coffee at the ready…
The Big Sip
The take: China is stress-testing humanoid robots in a live border crossing while American competitors are still filming demos.
What happened: UBTECH Robotics began deploying its Walker S2 humanoid robots at the Fangchenggang checkpoint in Guangxi province this month under a $37 million government contract, one of the first large-scale uses of humanoid robots in law enforcement and public security.
Why it matters: The robots can autonomously replace their depleted batteries in about three minutes, enabling near-continuous 24-hour operation without human intervention. An operational capability deployed at a checkpoint handling millions of crossings annually.
What to watch: UBTECH aims to deliver 500 industrial humanoid robots by year-end and scale to 10,000 units by 2027. If Fangchenggang works, expect similar deployments at airports, seaports, and train stations.
Somewhere in Palo Alto, a demo robot just felt inadequate.
Sponsor Break
Before we slurp into today’s brew…
Here are some wordies from today’s sponsor.
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Here’s Your Brew
The business model is upside down.
UBTECH lost 1.16 billion yuan ($160 million) in 2024. In the first half of 2025, losses narrowed to 414 million yuan, but the company remains firmly unprofitable.
Revenue is growing — up 27.5% in H1 2025 — yet margins can't keep pace with R&D burn.
So why does a loss-making company keep landing nine-figure government contracts?
Because Beijing treats humanoid robots like it treated EVs and chips: strategic industries get runway before they get profits.
The 2023 MIIT directive called for a national humanoid robotics innovation system by 2025 and mass deployment by 2027. Fangchenggang is the proof-of-concept.
Tesla's Optimus demonstrated smooth running in December. Musk promises 5,000 units in Tesla factories by year-end. But those are internal deployments in controlled settings.
China just put humanoids in a live checkpoint with millions of annual crossings.
Contracts build industries.
Two Sides, One Mug
→ Pro-deployment: Real-world stress tests accelerate learning faster than lab conditions. Government contracts provide revenue stability for loss-making firms developing strategic tech.
→ Anti-deployment: Subsidizing unprofitable companies distorts markets and delays necessary cost discipline. Public security isn't the place to debug prototype technology.
→ Our read: China is betting that deploying imperfect robots in demanding environments will compound learning faster than waiting for perfection (an industrial policy philosophy).
Receipt of the Day
Source: MIIT Guiding Opinion on Innovation and Development of Humanoid Robots, November 2023 (via CGTN)
"By 2025, China will establish a preliminary humanoid robot innovation system and achieve breakthroughs in key technologies including 'brain, cerebellum and limbs.' By 2027, humanoid robots should become an important new engine of economic growth."
Why it matters: The Fangchenggang deployment isn't a one-off. It's a scheduled milestone in a two-year government roadmap. The standardisation committee announced that December 27 is the next step — unified safety and interoperability rules that will shape exports.
Spit Take
"Three minutes to swap a battery. Twenty-four hours on patrol."
Your Coffee Break Links (and water cooler chatter)
📎 The full technical breakdown: South China Morning Post's original reporting covers the contract terms, Walker S2 capabilities, and UBTECH's production targets. The definitive source. (SCMP)
📎 China's humanoid robot "dream team": The new standardisation committee includes Unitree's founder, UBTECH executives, and reps from Xiaomi, Huawei, and XPeng. This is the group writing the rulebook. (Humanoids Daily)
📎 Tesla Optimus: the gap between demos and deployment: A sober look at what Optimus can do versus the hype — plus that awkward moment when one fell over at a Miami event. (Fortune)
Join your team of caffeinated skeptics.
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