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Image: FP
The take: Trump and Xi signed a one-year trade agreement pausing tariff escalation.
Both leaders needed tangible results.
What happened: On 30 October 2025, Trump and Xi met for 100 minutes in Busan, South Korea and agreed to pause escalating tariffs, port fees and rare earth controls for exactly one year.
Why it matters: Farmers receive soybean orders, shipping companies receive fee relief, and both presidents can claim successful negotiations.
But consumers still pay the 47% tariff rate that was 0% three years ago.
The agreement expires in 12 months.
What to watch: April 2026, when Trump visits Beijing, and the renegotiation deadline in October 2026.
[Report] Foreign Policy covers the deal terms, including port fee suspensions, soybean commitments, and tariff reductions. Published 30 October 2025.
The US agreed to reduce tariffs from 57% to 47%.
At the same time, China committed to purchasing 12 million metric tons of US soybeans by January, plus 25 million metric tons annually for the next three years, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced.
Both sides paused reciprocal port fees and agreed to suspend new export controls for one year.
Trump told reporters the deal was "amazing" and rated it "12 out of 10," adding that "every year we'll renegotiate the deal.
Trump described the meeting as amazing. China's commerce ministry stated that the two sides "agreed to expand agricultural trade" without specifying dollar amounts.
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Here’s Your Brew
Trade deals with annual expiration dates have limited durability.
Trump and Xi spent 100 minutes in Busan agreeing to pause trade escalation for exactly 12 months.
The timing reflects political pressures.
Trump needed results on soybean exports before the midterm elections. Xi needed to demonstrate diplomatic progress without further economic disruption.
American consumers pay costs through the 47% tariff rate, which is 47 percentage points higher than 2022 levels.
These costs affect grocery bills and electronics prices.
Beijing appears diplomatic while maintaining its negotiating position. Washington claims a successful negotiation.
The one-year timeline aligns renegotiation with the US political cycle..
Two Sides, One Mug
Image: Time
Pro: A 12-month pause prevents immediate economic damage, provides farmers with cash flow, and creates space for discussions on fentanyl, semiconductors and Taiwan without daily tariff escalation.
Con: Delaying resolution 12 months creates another deadline before elections. China made similar soybean commitments during Trump's first term that weren't fully met.
A 47% baseline tariff continues to affect supply chains across the Pacific.
Our read: Both leaders prioritized short-term political benefits over long-term resolution.
The 12-month timeline ensures renegotiation occurs during the next US election cycle.
Receipt of the Day
Trump's remarks to reporters aboard Air Force One after the Xi meeting — Published 30 October 2025
Trump told reporters, "We have a deal," and rated the meeting "12 out of 10," but immediately added, "Every year we'll renegotiate the deal."
The one-year timeline is a central feature of the agreement.
The president announced a deal while simultaneously stating it expires in 12 months.
Spit Take
“$3.2B in port fees paused for 12 months.” — Reuters.
Your Coffee Break Links (and water cooler chatter)
CBC analysis: "China's strategy of never striking first but always striking back" was vindicated — Beijing used rare earth controls as leverage and got tariff cuts without giving much away. [Analysis]
Fortune reports China bought US soybeans for the first time this season just before the summit — Timing is everything: China's first soybean purchase in months arrived days before the meeting, signaling the deal was already done. [Report]
Al Jazeera notes the 100-minute meeting surprised observers who expected longer talks — When both sides know the outcome before they sit down, the meeting doesn't need to be long. [Report]
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Will this trade deal last the full 12 months?
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