Trump takes a victory lap. Oil takes a hike.

It’s Thursday!

Hello, Curse and Coffee friends,

Today, we look at Trump’s victory lap.

Hit reply and let us know what you think (we read all of your kind words).

Coffee at the ready…

The take: The US president is declaring victory in a war that's still killing people. Also, still raising your petrol prices.

What happened: Trump told a rally crowd in Hebron, Kentucky, that the US had already won the war with Iran, saying, "In the first hour it was over."

Why it matters: The same day, 32 IEA member countries unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of emergency oil. Largest coordinated release in the agency's history. Funny thing to need if you've already won.

What to watch: Iran is now laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The G7 is floating and escorting commercial tankers through. Will the price of oil continue to climb?

You know your position is strong when 32 countries have to crack open the emergency stash to stop the panic.

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Start with the barrel count.

Macquarie called the reserves "not a permanent solution" and said crude will trade like a "meme stock" until there's peace.

Hard to argue.

The US alone is releasing 172 million barrels. Delivery takes 120 days.

The SPR holds about 415 million out of a 715-million-barrel capacity, so Washington just burned through over 40% of what's left.

Last time they tried to refill, it took years.

The Strait stays frozen. Tankers stopped transiting after Feb 28.

JPMorgan's commodities desk said policy measures have a limited impact unless tankers can actually get through.

And the US was blindsided by Israel's strikes on 30 Iranian fuel depots — a senior US official told Axios the American response was "WTF."

The reserves are a painkiller. The disease is still the Strait.

Pro: Massive air campaign destroyed 80% of Iran's air defences and missile launchers. That's real damage to a country that was building nukes.

Con: Only 29% of Americans approve of the strikes. Two-thirds expect gas prices to keep climbing. Congress hasn't voted to authorise the war or fund it.

Our read: You can flatten the air force and still lose the argument at the pump. Voters don't count missile launchers. They count dollars per gallon.

[Report] IEA Emergency Release Announcement, March 11, 2026

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol: "The conflict in the Middle East is having significant impacts on global oil and gas markets, with major implications for energy security, energy affordability and the global economy."

Why it matters: This is only the fifth collective IEA release ever. The previous record was 182.7 million barrels after Russia invaded Ukraine. They just more than doubled it.

When the oil fire brigade shows up with the biggest hose in history and says it still won't be enough, that's your receipt. (CNBC)

400M barrels released. 26 days of cover. (CNN)

Black rain is falling in Tehran. WHO warns that toxic pollutants from oil depot strikes are causing acidic rainfall over a city of 10 million. Not a metaphor. (CBC)

Republicans are sweating at the pump. Gas hit $3.54/gallon — up 21% in a month — wiping out every price drop Trump bragged about in the State of the Union. (CNBC)

The war costs $891 million a day (and counting). Penn Wharton estimates a two-month conflict runs $40–95 billion. Congress hasn't approved a single dollar of supplemental funding. (CSIS)

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