The Big Sip
Image: Bloomberg
The take: Washington repeatedly chooses crisis-based governance over normal legislative process.
What happened: The US government shut down at midnight on October 1, 2025—the 11th shutdown in modern history. Congress and Trump couldn't agree on spending, particularly on healthcare and budget cuts.
Why it matters: Trump suggests using the shutdown to make permanent federal job cuts. A temporary budget dispute could become a permanent workforce reduction.
What to watch: Senate leaders predict at least another week without resolution. The critical question: Will Trump eliminate federal positions before Congress passes funding?
Reciepts
[Report] NBC News, 1 Oct 2025 — Live blog confirms shutdown began at midnight after both Senate funding bills failed
[Report] Al Jazeera, 30 Sept 2025 — Details Trump's stated intention to use shutdown for federal layoffs and "irreversible measures"
[Analysis] ABC News, 30 Sept 2025 — Comprehensive breakdown of which services close and which stay open during shutdowns, with agency-by-agency details
If this is adult money, my bank app ought to send flowers.
Here’s The Brew
Government shutdowns happen because decision-makers avoid personal consequences.
At midnight on October 1, 2025, Congress adjourned without passing a funding deal, resulting in the closure of federal agencies.
Politicians continue to collect salaries while federal workers and contractors remain unpaid. The strategy relies on public pressure forcing one side to make the first compromise.
Congress and the White House use shutdowns for political positioning and fundraising.
Federal contractors, janitors, and hourly workers lose income—many without guaranteed back pay even when the government reopens.
Shutdowns enable officials to demonstrate their ideological commitment to supporters without incurring financial hardship themselves. The pattern repeats because it achieves its political goals at the expense of others.
Federal employees face mortgage payments and grocery bills during shutdowns.
Politicians face camera crews and speaking opportunities. This asymmetry ensures the cycle continues approximately every 18 months, as predictable as election cycles.
Two Sides, One Mug
Image: duclarion
Pro: Shutdowns force genuine debate on spending priorities and prevent rubber-stamping bloated budgets; the disruption is temporary, and essential services continue.
Con: Manufactured crises damage government credibility, harm federal workers who can't afford unpaid gaps, and cost taxpayers billions in lost productivity for zero policy gain.
Our read: When the people negotiating keep their salaries and the people suffering don't, incentives are backwards. Fix that first, then watch how fast deals get done.
Receipt of the Day
[Primary] Senate voting records, 30 Sept 2025
Why it shifts the read: Both the Democratic and Republican stopgap bills failed to reach 60 votes, proving this wasn't about one party blocking the other — it was mutual assured dysfunction. Neither side wanted to be seen compromising before the shutdown gave them leverage.
Spit Take
"21st funding gap. 11th shutdown. Zero penalties." — US Congressional history
Coffee Break Links ×3
[Report] ABC News: US government shuts down at midnight — Best timeline of failed negotiations and what triggered the deadline miss. Worth reading for the Oval Office meeting blow-by-blow.
[Analysis] Al Jazeera: Will a government shutdown hurt the US economy? — Breaks down GDP impact, consumer spending slowdown, and why past shutdowns cost billions even after workers get back pay.
[Report] Sky News: What does a US government shutdown mean? — UK perspective explaining why most parliamentary systems don't let this happen. Helpful chart on what stays open versus what closes.
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Mugshot Poll 📊
What breaks the shutdown first?
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