Winter Storm Fern Tests Every Grid Fix Texas Made Since 246 People Died

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Today, we explore Winter Storm Fern.

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The take: Texas added 40,000 megawatts since 2021, but reserve margins dropped from 17.5% to 10.1% while demand jumped 20%.

What happened: Governor Abbott declared emergencies in 134 Texas counties on Thursday as Winter Storm Fern barrels toward more than 200 million Americans, bringing crippling ice and up to a foot of snow.

Why it matters: The 2021 freeze killed at least 246 Texans and cost somewhere between $80 billion and $195 billion, depending on who's counting. Officials swear it can't happen again.

What to watch: ERCOT's "Weather Watch" runs through January 27. If ice downs local lines instead of crashing the grid, officials claim victory while neighbourhoods sit in the dark.

The grid might hold. Your transformer? That's between you and a tree branch. If you're in the path: charge everything, fill the tub, find your nearest warming centre.

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ERCOT controls generation.

Can't do much about ice-coated limbs snapping your local transformer. Half an inch of ice adds 500 pounds to power lines.

In 2021, freezing accounted for 44% of outages; fuel issues accounted for 31%. Protecting just four component types could have cut failures by 67%.

Texas added capacity.

But 31 GW came from solar and 18 GW from wind. Great when the sun's out. Not so great at 6 a.m. in a blizzard.

Batteries help, but drain fast under sustained cold.

The grid survived 2021 by 4 minutes and 37 seconds.

Texas fixed that gap.

Whether they fixed everything between the substation and your furnace is a different story.

Pro: Texas conducted thousands of weatherization inspections since 2021 and spent billions hardening the grid. The generation side is tougher now.

Con: Reserve margins shrank from 17.5% to 10.1% while data centres piled on 164 GW of pending load requests. Texas built for 2021. Fern isn't 2021.

Our read: The grid probably survives. Your neighbourhood's distribution lines? Flip a coin.

FERC Final Report on February 2021 Freeze

Natural gas-fired units represented 58% of all generating units experiencing outages. Not frozen wind turbines. This is the federal receipt that put an end to the "blame renewables" spin. Twenty-eight recommendations came out of it. Most are still pending.

[FERC]

4 minutes, 37 seconds — How close Texas came to total grid collapse in 2021. Recovery would have taken weeks.

Source: ERCOT testimony

1,300 Flights Already Cancelled — American cut 16% of Saturday's schedule. If you're routing through Atlanta or Dallas this weekend, good luck.

Team Rubicon Pre-Positioning — Veteran-led disaster crews have chainsaws and generators staged in Texas, Chicago, and Atlanta. They're not waiting for the ice to melt.

NYC Braces for a Foot — Mayor Mamdani deployed 2,000 sanitation workers on 12-hour shifts. The European model says 14 inches. American says 9. Dress for the European.)

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