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It’s Wednesday!
Hello, Curse and Coffee friends,
Today, we look at your petrol bill.
Hit reply and let us know what you think (we read all of your kind words).
Coffee at the ready…
The Big Sip
Bloomberg
The take: The Strait of Hormuz isn't legally closed, but your wallet won't know the difference.
What happened: Tanker traffic through the world's most important oil chokepoint dropped 94% in a single day. After the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on 28 February, major insurers pulled war-risk cover. At least four ships were hit by projectiles.
Why it matters: U.S. gas prices jumped 12 cents on Monday, according to GasBuddy. The fourth-largest single-day spike since 2005. Analysts see another 20 to 55 cents per gallon over the next two weeks if the fighting continues.
What to watch: War-risk insurance cancellations kick in on 4–5 March. After that, even willing captains can't legally sail — no insurer means no port will take you.
Iran didn't mine the waterway or line it with warships. It broadcast threats on VHF radio, struck a handful of tankers near Omani waters, and let the insurance industry do the rest.
Analyst Receipt
[Analysis] JPMorgan, 2 March 2026
JPMorgan's commodities desk had modelled the Hormuz scenario as improbable. Three days into the war, the model broke.
Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research:
"Our base case assumed that an unprecedented disruption would remain improbable. The assumption failed."
This landed before Trump's insurance announcement. JPMorgan's revised outlook doesn't account for any government backstop.
Their updated scenario puts Brent at $100–$120 if the strait stays blocked for more than three weeks.
Supertanker freight rates hit a record $423,736 per day on Monday — up 94% from Friday, according to LSEG data. Freight rates are panicking. Oil prices aren't.
Sponsor Break
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Here’s Your Brew
Nobody at an insurance desk has ever fired a shot. But it didn't stop them from closing the most important shipping lane on earth this week.
A supertanker — one of those ships big enough to carry two million barrels — needs insurance to operate.
When insurers say no, the ship is stuck. Ports won't take it. Nobody books the cargo.
At least five major insurers walked away from the Gulf this week. Iran's military couldn't physically blockade a 21-mile strait patrolled by the U.S. Fifth Fleet.
Three struck tankers, and a radio threat did the rest. Ships don't stop for bullets. They stop when the maths says so.
The awkward bit about Trump's fix:
He wants a development bank to write war insurance for tankers. That's the U.S. government betting its own money that the strait is safe to cross.
While bombing the country on the other side of it.
Two Sides, One Mug
Curse and Coffee
For the escorts: Government-backed insurance means tanker owners no longer bear the risk. It's been done before — the U.S. reflagged Kuwaiti tankers and ran Navy convoys during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.
Against: The Navy says it can't deliver those escorts. Promising something you can't do risks spooking markets even more. Repurposing for wartime shipping insurance stretches the agency well past what it was built to do.
Our read: The insurance play might coax a few brave captains out. But the gap between what Trump promised and what the Navy confirmed is the line to watch.
Receipt of the Day
Satellite ship-tracking data confirming zero active tanker transits in primary Hormuz shipping lanes as of 1 March, with only one small tanker observed early on 2 March.
Windward called it a "sustained commercial withdrawal from the corridor rather than temporary hesitation."
Why it matters: Radio messages and press conferences say a lot. The tracking screens say more. Right now, they're dark.
Spit Take
94% traffic drop. Zero mines laid. — JMIC / Argus Media
Your Coffee Break Links (and water cooler chatter)
Mugshot Poll 📊
Who actually closed the Strait of Hormuz?
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