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It’s Wednesday!
Hello, Curse and Coffee friends,
Today, we look at your petrol bill.
Hit reply and let us know what you think (we read all of your kind words).
Coffee at the ready…
The Big Sip
Bloomberg
The take: The Strait of Hormuz isn't legally closed, but your wallet won't know the difference.
What happened: Tanker traffic through the world's most important oil chokepoint dropped 94% in a single day. After the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on 28 February, major insurers pulled war-risk cover. At least four ships were hit by projectiles.
Why it matters: U.S. gas prices jumped 12 cents on Monday, according to GasBuddy. The fourth-largest single-day spike since 2005. Analysts see another 20 to 55 cents per gallon over the next two weeks if the fighting continues.
What to watch: War-risk insurance cancellations kick in on 4–5 March. After that, even willing captains can't legally sail — no insurer means no port will take you.
Iran didn't mine the waterway or line it with warships. It broadcast threats on VHF radio, struck a handful of tankers near Omani waters, and let the insurance industry do the rest.
Analyst Receipt
[Analysis] JPMorgan, 2 March 2026
JPMorgan's commodities desk had modelled the Hormuz scenario as improbable. Three days into the war, the model broke.
Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research:
"Our base case assumed that an unprecedented disruption would remain improbable. The assumption failed."
This landed before Trump's insurance announcement. JPMorgan's revised outlook doesn't account for any government backstop.
Their updated scenario puts Brent at $100–$120 if the strait stays blocked for more than three weeks.
Supertanker freight rates hit a record $423,736 per day on Monday — up 94% from Friday, according to LSEG data. Freight rates are panicking. Oil prices aren't.
Sponsor Break
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