Zombie fires don't need a fire season. They make their own.

Thursday!!!

Hello, Curse and Coffee friends,

Today, we explore Arctic Zombie fires.

Hit reply and let us know what you think (we read all of your kind words).

Coffee at the ready…

The take: Fire season is dead in the Arctic (blazes now smoulder through winter and reignite in spring).

What happened: NASA confirmed Arctic wildfires have hit intensity levels unseen in 3,000 years, driven by "zombie fires" that burn underground in peat and survive the cold.

Why it matters: The soil they're burning holds twice the carbon currently in Earth's atmosphere. Once it's out, it's not going back.

What to watch: Canada's 2025 fire season, where holdover fires pushed the burned area to 8.8 million hectares by September.

Winter used to kill fires.

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Peat gives a fire everything it needs. Fuel. Insulation. Enough oxygen pockets to keep smouldering just below the threshold that would melt the snow above.

Summer blazes burn deep, then wait.

A spring thaw cracks the lid, and they're back.

Over 100 zombie fires were active in British Columbia at the start of 2024. They've shown up near Oymyakon, the coldest village on Earth, overwintering through multiple seasons.

You can't see them coming. No smoke.

Just steam rising through snow, if you're looking.

Here's the bit that stuck with me: new research suggests it's not temperature that triggers zombie fires. It's the rate of warming.

How fast the soil dries out, not how hot it gets.

If that holds up…

The whole framing around 1.5°C targets might be slightly beside the point.

We'll see.

Pro: Permafrost thaw is gradual at the global scale. Not a cliff edge. Mitigation can still slow carbon release.

Con: Doesn't matter if it's gradual. Once permafrost thaws, decomposition keeps going even if temperatures level off. That carbon is gone.

Our read: We haven't crossed a planetary tipping point. The fires seem less interested in waiting for one.

[Research]

Fire activity in the northern Arctic tundra now exceeds late Holocene levels — EGUsphere, 2025

3,000-year charcoal record from Arctic Alaska. Fire activity spiked around 1880 to levels that exceed anything in the prior three millennia. Drying peatlands, shrub expansion, and new fuel loads that didn't exist before. The baseline we've been using? Already obsolete.

100+ zombie fires burned through one Canadian winter. — Alaska Beacon

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