Australia Cut Fuel Taxes and Made Trains Free. Here's Why That's Terrifying.

Pour one for Australia today — the country ships enough coal and gas to power half of Asia, but right now it can't keep its own petrol stations stocked.

Today: free trains, halved fuel taxes, and a $2.55 billion emergency plan.

Coffee at the ready…

Australia exports more energy than almost any country on Earth. It still can't fill its own petrol stations.

On Monday, Canberra announced it will halve the fuel excise from 1 April — cutting 26.3 cents per litre off petrol and diesel for three months. Budget cost: $2.55 billion. Australia imports over 80% of its refined fuel. Most of it comes from Asian refineries fed by Middle Eastern crude. The same crude Iran choked off on 2 March.

Watch two clocks: Trump's April 6 deadline for Iran to reopen the Hormuz Strait, and stage three of Canberra's fuel plan — work-from-home guidance and rationing.

The country once had eight refineries. Now it has two, and a prayer.

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Victoria made all trains, trams and buses free from today through the end of April. Tasmania scrapped fares on buses and ferries until July. The goal: get cars off the road and free up fuel for the regions.

Four other states passed, which tells you their private forecast is uglier than their public messaging. NSW transport minister John Graham said the state needed to "keep its powder dry." Translation: this is round one, and they know it.

Petrol prices have jumped roughly a dollar a litre since mid-February. Hundreds of service stations have reported shortfalls. Actual supply lines are intact — the shortage is panic, not physics.

Small trucking companies are caught in the worst of it. They pay for diesel upfront. They don't get paid for 30, 60, or sometimes 90 days. When diesel costs spike, the cash-flow gap widens, and no one upstream adjusts the schedule.

The IEA's chief called this crisis worse than both 1970s oil shocks. Though those lasted for years. This one could deflate in weeks if diplomacy lands. But even a short shock exposes the design flaw: Australia optimised for export revenue, not domestic resilience.

Sit with this for a second: the country digs up coal, ships LNG to Asia, and exports iron ore by the billions.

And right now, a parent in Melbourne is choosing between a full tank and a full fridge because the country let its refineries close and never replaced them.

Pro: Cheaper fuel and free trains put cash back in pockets this week, and fewer cars on the road means more diesel for the regions.

Con: A three-month tax cut treats symptoms, not the structural vulnerability of a nation with two refineries and 36 days of reserves.

Our read: The band-aid buys time, but the wound is two decades of strategic neglect — and Hormuz just ripped the plaster off.

[Analysis] ASPI Strategist — "Hormuz Closure Brings Australia's Layered Fuel Vulnerability to the Fore"

Key finding: Australia's fuel must pass through the Strait of Hormuz and the Indonesian straits to reach port. Double the chokepoints, double the exposure.

Why it matters: Even if Middle Eastern crude gets rerouted, refined product still has to squeeze through Southeast Asia's narrow shipping lanes.

Australia's fuel reserves: 36 days. IEA minimum: 90.

(ASPI)

NPR — TSA workers went 44 days without pay before Trump ordered back pay. 500 officers have already quit. The airports are still a mess.

Axios — A new pro-AI group backed by David Sacks plans to spend $100M on the 2026 midterms. Total AI election spending now tops $300M.

Al Jazeera — Netanyahu ordered the military to expand its invasion of southern Lebanon. Over 1,200 killed and 1 million displaced since 2 March.

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That's Tuesday.

Somewhere in regional Victoria, a farmer is hoping the free trains mean one more tanker of diesel reaches the depot before planting season.

Energy security isn't abstract when the pump runs dry.

Stay caffeinated,

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