Cuba's power grid died on Washington's schedule

The CIA director flew into Havana yesterday.

Cuba's grid failed the same day.

Coffee at the ready…

Thursday's Cuba power grid collapse wasn't an accident (it was a deadline).

The national grid failed across eastern Cuba, knocking out power for 4,000,000 people. Hours earlier, the energy minister had told state TV the island had "absolutely no fuel oil, absolutely no diesel."

The same day, CIA Director John Ratcliffe arrived in Havana with a $100m aid offer attached to "fundamental changes."

The blockade and the offer are one policy in two coats.

The Cuba oil blockade has been tightening since January.

Washington has imposed over 240 sanctions, intercepted at least seven oil tankers, and cut the island's energy imports by 80 to 90 per cent, per Cuba Headlines. Cuba already produces only 40 per cent of the fuel it needs. The maths finished the job on Thursday.

By then, Havana districts had been going 20 to 22 hours a day without power, schools were shut, and the rubbish was piling up.

The squeeze runs through every supplier.

Venezuela's then-president Maduro had been the main supplier until US forces removed him from power in January. A Mexican tanker reached Havana days later, prompting Trump's Truth Social post: "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA — ZERO!" Mexico halted its shipments soon after. A Russian tanker left the Baltic that same month and has been stuck in the Atlantic ever since.

Four suppliers, four shutdowns, one signature.

Then comes the offer.

The State Department publicly restated on Wednesday a $100m aid package — distributed via the Catholic Church, conditional on "meaningful reforms to Cuba's communist system." Ratcliffe landed the next day to deliver the message in person.

Cuba's foreign minister called the offer "a 100 million-dollar lie" last week, then said yesterday Havana would "hear" it.

The world hasn't been quiet about this.

The UN General Assembly has voted to end the embargo every year since 1992, with the 2024 tally reaching 187 votes to 2. Vietnam, Spain, Belarus and the African Union have publicly backed Cuba's right to fuel this year. The US previously sent $6m via the Catholic Church after Hurricane Melissa. The new offer is sixteen times bigger, but it's a fraction of what the lost fuel would cost to replace.

Call it aid. The blockade is the policy.

Pro: The regime, not the embargo, is the problem. Rubio's price for talks includes verifiable release of remaining political prisoners, and $100m via the Church bypasses the state entirely.

Con: UN human rights experts called the blockade unlawful last week. By Wednesday night, Havana residents were banging pots and burning rubbish in the street, shouting "Turn on the lights."

Our read: Coercion works on regimes by working on civilians first. That's the cost being externalised here.

[Report] US Department of State — "The United States Is Ready to Provide $100 Million in Direct Assistance to the Cuban People, If the Cuban Regime Will Permit It"

The official text reads: "The decision rests with the Cuban regime to accept our offer of assistance or deny critical life-saving aid."

Why it matters: The State Department put the blame on Havana for refusing aid. It did not mention the blockade Washington imposed in the first place.

Trump predicted Cuba would "collapse." Thursday, the grid did.

CBC — Cuba's grid collapses as fuel runs dry — The on-the-ground colour: pots banged, trash burned, 24-hour blackouts.

CNN — Ratcliffe meets Raúl Castro's grandson in Havana — The CIA's first cabinet-level Havana visit in years, and who he sat across from.

France 24 — Aid offer renewed while sanctions tighten — The two policies running in parallel, from a non-US wire.

$100m, lights might come back. Deal?

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