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Today's story:

A phone call to Anchorage and a $50 billion market sitting on the runway in Beijing.

The Big Sip

NVIDIA's chip sales in China are zero.

The world's most powerful chip CEO just hitched a ride to Beijing on Air Force One. Jensen Huang was left off Trump's delegation until media coverage flagged it, and Trump phoned him directly.

Huang boarded the plane in Anchorage during a refuelling stop — Trump called it fake news, but never said why Huang was off the list in the first place.

Until he does, you cannot tell whether this trip means anything.

Here’s Your Brew

The numbers behind the call are brutal.

NVIDIA once pulled at least a fifth of its data centre revenue from China. Huang valued the market at $50 billion a year. Today, the China line is zero. In its 10-K, the company told investors it is "effectively foreclosed" from China's data centre market.

Rivals are using the gap to grow their own developer base.

This is not for lack of trying.

In December, Trump cut a deal allowing Nvidia to ship H200 chips to "approved" Chinese buyers, with 25% of the proceeds going to the US government. Five months later, Nvidia has earned zero dollars under the programme.

Beijing has not issued a single import licence and has told domestic firms to favour local chips.

So the call from Trump matters. "

Huang was not on the published delegation as of Monday. By Tuesday, he was on Air Force One. The other 17 names on Monday's list — Cook, Musk, Solomon at Goldman, Amon at Qualcomm, plus chiefs from BlackRock, Blackstone, Citi, Mastercard, Micron, Meta, Visa and more — map almost exactly onto the summit agenda: chips, finance, agriculture, aircraft.

Trump rewrote the seating chart in mid-flight to put Huang at the table.

Bernstein analysts think Nvidia's slice of China's AI chip market will collapse from 66% in 2024 to around 8%.

Huawei and Cambricon are scaling up to take the rest. Even if Trump and Xi shake hands on H200, the market Huang is fighting for is the one his rivals are already eating.

Which brings you back to Anchorage.

Trump's December deal — H200 chips for China, 25% to the US government — was sold as the win of the year. Five months in, the win has earned zero dollars. The story falls apart unless someone with skin in the game looks Xi in the eye. Huang is the only person on Earth who can do it.

He was left off the list because Nvidia's revenue in China is zero.

He was added because the alternative is admitting why. If the handshake fails, every AI tool you use gets pricier.

And Huawei writes the next decade.

Two Sides, One Mug

Pro: Restarting H200 flow keeps American AI hardware embedded in Chinese stacks and funnels 25% of revenue to the US government (leverage with a price tag).

Con: Every chip sold to China shortens Beijing's catch-up timer. The FT found $1bn of Nvidia silicon was smuggled into China in three months last year. No deal required.

Our read: Trump wants the photo, Huang wants the market, and Xi wants neither badly enough to give up rare earths to get them, so expect process, not product.

Receipt of the Day

[Report] Nvidia 10-K filing, FY2026 — "Foreclosed from the China market"

The world's most valuable company has told its investors, in legal filings, that it has lost a $50 billion market. The exact phrase is "effectively foreclosed" from China's data centre market. The gap, Nvidia warns, is helping rivals build developer ecosystems to challenge Nvidia worldwide.

Why it matters: A 10-K is not a press release. Lying in one is a federal crime.

Spit Take

NVIDIA lost a $50 billion market and became the most valuable company on Earth. The China bear case is the bull case.

Source: Nvidia 10-K; Huang public comments

CNN — Trump lands in Beijing with 18 CEOs — The full delegation reads like a US tech and finance org chart, and tells you what is actually on the table.

Tom's Hardware — Huang says US export policy "has already largely backfired" — The CEO is grading Washington's homework, publicly, in front of his investors.

CNBC — Senator Coons grills Commerce on H200 licences — Even before the summit, Democrats were pressing Lutnick on how many chips have been shipped. Answer: vanishingly few.

Mugshot 📊

Trump bringing Huang to Beijing is…

  • The smartest play of his presidency

  • The biggest tech surrender since the Plaza Accord

  • Theatre. Nothing ships either way.

  • Beijing's win — they got Huang in the room without asking

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