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Friday morning.
Coffee poured?
Hello, Curse and Coffee friends,
Today, we look at disinformation.
Hit reply and let us know what you think (we read all of your kind words).
The Big Sip
Disinformation is no longer a political headache. It's a balance sheet problem. In 2019, a University of Baltimore and CHEQ study pegged the global cost of fake news at $78 billion a year — stock manipulation, dodgy health claims, rigged reviews. [Report]
A new meta-analysis from Sopra Steria and OpSci.ai, drawing on OECD, WHO, and WEF data, now estimates that figure closer to $417 billion. That's a fivefold jump in six years. AI-powered deepfakes are doing the heavy lifting. [Analysis]
The World Economic Forum ranked disinformation the top short-term global risk for the second year running. Expect regulators to start treating this like climate risk: systemic, measurable, and nobody's individual fault. [Report]
If your business plan depends on people trusting what they see online, maybe sit down for this one.
Sponsor Break
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Here’s Your Brew
Fake reviews alone cost businesses $152 billion globally in 2021, according to research by economist Roberto Cavazos.
That's not a typo — one hundred and fifty-two billion, just from people lying about hotels and headphones.
Then there's identity fraud.
The US Federal Reserve reported $35 billion in synthetic identity fraud losses in 2023. These aren't Nigerian prince emails. They're AI-built personas with generated faces and cloned voices — complete with credit histories that pass bank checks.
The sharpest case study landed in Hong Kong in January 2024.
Fraudsters used deepfake video to impersonate the CFO and senior staff of engineering firm Arup on a live conference call. A finance worker, convinced he was speaking to real colleagues, transferred $25 million across 15 transactions.
Every person on that call was synthetic.
Deepfake fraud attempts have surged 3,000% in recent years, and Deloitte projects US fraud losses alone could hit $40 billion by 2027.
The people paid to fight this are losing funding.
Bloomberg reported that US government cost-cutting has gutted nonprofits tracking online extremism globally.
The EU's Digital Services Act is now the loudest regulatory response, with its Code of Practice on Disinformation becoming a formal enforcement benchmark from July 2025.
Whether Brussels can enforce faster than bots can fabricate — that's the race.
Two Sides, One Mug
Curse and Coffee
Pro: Quantifying disinformation forces governments and businesses to treat it as economic risk, not just a culture war — and that unlocks budgets.
Con: Aggregated cost estimates bundle wildly different harms (fake reviews ≠ , election interference), which risks inflating the number and diluting targeted policy.
Our read: Argue the number all you want. The trend is the point. The line goes up, defences haven't kept pace, and AI poured petrol on it.
Receipt of the Day
Disinformation ranked the number one short-term global risk for the second consecutive year, based on a survey of 900+ risk experts.
Why it matters: When the people who price risk for a living put disinfo at the top, it's not a media story anymore. It's a money story.
Spit Take
$25M stolen in one deepfake video call.
— CNN / Hong Kong Police, 2024
Your Coffee Break Links (and water cooler chatter)
WEF — "What's the real cost of disinformation for corporations?" — Solid breakdown of how fake narratives spook investors and tank brands. [Analysis]
Indicator — "This AI-generated podcast network publishes 11,000 episodes a day" — A single bot network is flooding local news podcast feeds. Peak AI slop. [Report]
EU DisinfoLab — "AI Disinfo Hub" — The EU's living tracker of AI-driven disinfo campaigns, tools, and policy responses. Bookmark it. [Analysis]
Mugshot Poll 📊
Who should foot the bill for fighting disinformation?
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