Mayweather-Pacquiao II isn't a fight. It's a Netflix retention metric.

It’s Tuesday!

Hello, Curse and Coffee friends,

Today, we look at Mayweather-Pacquiao II (on Netflix).

Hit reply and let us know what you think (we read all of your kind words).

Coffee at the ready…

The take: Mayweather-Pacquiao II has nothing to do with boxing. Netflix needs 325 million subscribers to stay subscribed through September, and two famous pensioners are cheaper than making a good TV show.

What happened: Netflix confirmed on Monday that Floyd Mayweather (50-0) and Manny Pacquiao (62-8-3) will fight a professional rematch on 19 September at The Sphere in Las Vegas, streamed globally at no extra cost.

Why it matters: The 2015 fight made $600 million in total revenue. This time, Netflix is giving it away free because keeping you subscribed is worth more than selling you a ticket.

What to watch: Weight class and round count are still unconfirmed. Mayweather weighed in at 161 pounds for his last exhibition. The welterweight limit is 147. Nobody's calling this "professional" (with a straight face).

Two retirements, one shoulder excuse. The most expensive screensaver in streaming history.

[Analysis] Variety, 21 January 2026

Background: Netflix reported Q4 2025 earnings of $12.05 billion in revenue, crossing 325 million paid subscribers globally. Ad revenue hit $1.5 billion for the full year, up 2.5 times over 2024.

Key quote: Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos: "We're now serving an audience approaching one billion people globally."

Strategic timing: This announcement lands five weeks after Netflix said it plans to double ad revenue in 2026. A global spectacle at The Sphere is an ad-sales grab dressed in silk shorts.

Before we slurp into today’s brew…

Here are some wordies from today’s sponsor.

If your job touches cybersecurity, software, cloud, or IT operations, staying informed isn’t optional.

IT Brew is a free, four-times-a-week newsletter covering the trends shaping business tech—from infrastructure and strategy to the tools teams actually rely on.

Clear context. Focused coverage. Built for professionals running IT—not just talking about it.

Check it out

The 2015 bout was pay-per-view royalty.

4.6 million buys. A $72 million gate.

Also, one of the dullest fights in modern boxing. Mayweather jabbed his way to a decision. Pacquiao blamed a torn rotator cuff.

Nobody asked for a sequel.

In 2015, PPV charged $100 a household. The fight had to be worth the money. Netflix costs as little as $8 a month.

The fight just has to stop you from leaving.

The Tyson-Paul card in 2024 proved that it works. 108 million people watched. Netflix added 19 million subscribers that quarter across all its live pushes.

Its NFL Christmas games alone triggered 430,000 sign-ups, and 45% of those were still paying a year later.

The fights don't need to be good. The business model just needs them to exist.

Now look at the ad numbers.

Netflix's ad tier accounts for over 55% of new sign-ups in major markets. Ad revenue is set to double in 2026.

Every viewer sitting in The Sphere is worth less to Netflix than every viewer watching from their couch…

The couch viewer is the ad impression.

Mayweather is 49. Pacquiao is 47. Neither needs this for their legacy.

But Netflix reports Q3 earnings in October.

Convenient timing.

Pro: 325 million subscribers get a mega-fight at no extra cost, and Pacquiao — who came out of retirement at 46 to challenge for a world title and drew with Mario Barrios — genuinely wants competitive redemption.

Con: Branding a bout between two near-50-year-olds as "professional" makes the sport look like a nostalgia act, not a competition.

Our read: This was always a business decision dressed up as a sporting event.

Netflix Q4 2025 Shareholder Letter (PDF) — 325 million subscribers. $45.2 billion in annual revenue. $1.5 billion in ad sales. Read this, and the Sphere booking makes total sense.

Combined age at bell time: 96 years. — ESPN

Las Vegas Review-Journal — First boxing match at The Sphere. UFC 306 set a $22M gate there. Dana White said the costs made it not worth repeating. Netflix apparently disagrees.

Nasdaq — Netflix ran 200+ live events in 2025. WWE alone drove 525 million view hours. The quiet engine behind every fight announcement.

Yahoo Sports — Five months of negotiations. One Pacquiao quote: Mayweather was "ducking" him. Make of that what you will.

You can read all our back issue newsletters for free here.

For the love of coffee, see you tomorrow!

Enjoy your Tuesday, keep it caffeinated.

Thanks for reading!

Are you subscribing?

Join your crew of caffeinated sceptics today.

Be sure to get your daily Curse and Coffee fix by hitting the button below.

Open Monday to Friday.

Read yesterdays newsletter about The Supreme Court Kills Trump's Tariffs here.

Learn how to read any government/company PDF without crying!

Take advantage of what others miss. We teach you how to extract the gems from the dirt.

Share the Curse and Coffee newsletter with just 1 real person to download your Receipts Toolkit instantly. A field guide for caffeinated sceptics who want to pull signal from filings, datasets, and reports.

No law degree needed. A no-nap promise.

Refer to unlock and never struggle to identify opportunities in long, drawn-out documents again.

“Receipts over vibes. Always.”

Thank you for sharing…

And be sure to use your toolkit to extract max alpha from any document you read.

Stay Caffinated!